TRADING TIPS: PRE MORTEM

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SUCKER PUNCH

anybody got punched in the face from last week correction? well, i got

although my position is small and concentrated on property sector i.e BKSL, SMRA and SSIA plus i also have EXCL. but needless to say, i cut loss on all of them (all got the stop price except EXCL, i chickened out)… yes. you read it right. we do have losses here in Blisaham. yup it sucks, but anybody told you otherwise, high chance is a scam.

looking back to the Composite price structure, i think it played it right, at 3 august i post my composite commenterary ” everyone can draw a line, not everyone patience enough to be the last weak hand to enter.”

posted at stockbit.com 3 aug 2019

so i did understand the Composite is at support, it of course have a good chance both to bounce at or break the price, i also notice that at 5 august Indonesia will announce it Q2 GDP number. so, it’s not surprising the price is at the support line even the candle is forming a doji. i’m guessing everybody waited to this number. and all my stock are at support line, so the plan is simple, if it price broke the support, just cut the losses. easy.

i did that. i cut my losses. and i think i played it right because i already imagine this scenario

PRE MORTEM

pre mortem is a time travel technique, we imagines our projection are failing and asks “how did that happen?”. we imagine our plan is failed i.e we have cut loss, the we asked “how did that happen?”

i did this step at every entry in equity mentioned above. mostly i bought the stocks at late July, at their breaking price (you can check out their chart). my note at the moment is my plan likely to fail if the market got a bad sentiment that make a miserably correction. because at last week at July market already in severe correction and my portfolio stocks did OKAY.

when the first price reversal at 31th July happen, it gave me have high confidence that the market at minimal test the 6450 level. and of course because my stocks shows a good relative strength, we can assume they will likely have a good chance of strong momentum.

but since the market did the opposite. our projection didn’t happen. (spoiler alert: this happen in market)

TAKE AWAYS

you can have high confidence in market, did you homework but market can do whatever he want. like Jesse Livermore said “The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people most of the time”.

it’s a good exercise to do a pre mortem or others mental travel technique. it’s better we seek a reason NOT to buy than the opposite. it’s help you filtering impulsive trading and help you thinking in probability (you can read Annie Duke’s Book resume here, it shows how to make smarter bets)

hope this help. thanks for reading. and do not forget to share the love.

and if you like our approach, you can join us by donating at campaign at our front page or you can chose your own charity. after donating, email me at yuk.blisaham@gmail.com or mention @blisaham. then i’ll add you to our slack workshop and we’ll have a fun day ahead.

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